Lesson learned: Technology based 100% on public perception can disappear as quickly as the hype that created it.
Generative AI
“Generative AI is the latest example,” says Mason, who cites the recent MIT study showing 95% of generative AI pilots fail as very telling.
Similarly, a 2025 McKinsey survey found that 80% of companies using generative AI found no significant bottom-line impact, with 90% of projects still stuck in “pilot mode.”
While the numbers don’t sound promising, the AI hype cycle is more nuanced than others. “The problem isn’t the tech, it’s the approach: broad, abstract use cases instead of targeted pain points,” Mason adds. “The future belongs to smaller, focused AI applications that reduce complexity and solve real problems.”
On the consumer side, the “force-feeding of AI on an unwilling public,” as Ted Gioia puts it, has led to increased apathy: only 8% of Americans would pay extra for AI, reports ZDNET. Generative AI features continue to appear in end-user applications, whether they’re helpful or not—and users are pushing back. The Wall Street Journal reports that companies are learning to be far more cautious about promoting AI in products.
Others agree that AI could use a dose of realism. “Lessons from blockchain can definitely be applied to today’s AI frenzy,” says Campos. “Focus on solving real problems, not chasing buzzwords.”
Even so, AI has more staying power than earlier waves. “AI is different because it actually delivers tangibly different results, at a convenience and price point that is much less of an issue,” says Fong-Jones. Although broader business benefits remain elusive, generative AI has been successfully applied in niches such as software development. It’s undoubtedly here to stay.
Holt also sees many parallels from historical hype cycles to today’s focus on AI and agents, underscoring the need for evolving standards, like Model Context Protocol and Agent2Agent. “Much work is still ahead to continue to improve those standards and to explore more complex use cases,” he says.
Lesson learned: Some hyped technologies are praiseworthy, but need maturity and refinement in where exactly to apply them.
The bigger picture
Of course, these six trends aren’t the only hype waves we’ve lived through. Tech is full of other high promises and low failures. “These hype cycles have been around for years,” reminds Sonatype’s Fox. “They’re a constant reminder to stay practical and pragmatic about new technologies without abandoning reasoning.”
It’s hard to know when you’re getting swept up in the bandwagon of tech trends, let alone where the road is heading. Sometimes, the confusion can fog up what works in the current moment.
“The industry is often quick to downplay technology trends of the past as new approaches emerge,” says Holt. “While AI and agents are getting nearly all of the hype today, I have little doubt the many innovations over the past few decades will continue to drive impact at scale.”
Regardless, history repeats itself, and hindsight can help guide future tech choices.
For instance, many of the trends above required a high degree of friction and complexity compared to other “mainstream” technologies of the time, making their end payoffs unclear. “Adding exotic technology without a clear, measurable benefit will only cause more pain than payoff,” says R Systems’ Rao.
For Rao, his organization’s dalliance with blockchain proved that people need incentives and accountability to embrace new technology. It also inspired the company to instigate kill switches for new experiments. “Now, if we don’t see real usage by a set date, we pivot or stop.”
He goes on to note that even some mainstream tech that appears to be “the status quo” is overhyped. “Survivorship bias ensures that only the few success stories are covered,” he says.
Chasing the next big thing
This isn’t to say that all the ideas lampooned above are worthless. Many sparked innovation and will continue to evolve in their own ways. Moreso, the gulf between promise and reality, and the tendency for hype to overheat the market, is very apparent in retrospect.
So, what’s driving tech’s insatiable lust for the next big thing? Human psychology. VC dollars. FOMO. Plain curiosity. Excitement and hype, after all, is what drives invention.
As Holt acknowledges: “Without these motivations, many breakthroughs may have never received the resources, attention, and early adoption required to break through.”
He continues. “From railroads and electricity to the internet and AI, the hype around ‘game-changing technology’ drives us forward.”
So, some hype around ‘the next big thing’ ain’t all that bad. It’s knowing how to tell when wishful thinking replaces sanity that makes all the difference.
Or, as Mason says, “Novelty is not value.”
