In October last year, the world’s richest conspiracy theorist, Elon Musk, announced plans for a robotaxi, the Tesla Cybercab.
Production would begin he said “in 2026”, before correcting himself to “before 2027”, because “I tend to be a little optimistic with timeframes”.
That observation is an understatement inversely proportional to Musk’s wealth.
So it wasn’t surprising that Musk’s announcement of the US$30,000 ( A$44.5k) Cybercab – along with a 20-seat autonomous “Robovan” (with no timeframe) was met with plenty of deja vu and scepticism.
“I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year,” Musk said. That confidence dates from a 2019 quote.
Waymo is already doing it in San Francisco. Musk is dealing with US regulatory investigation into the autopilot systems on 2.4 million cars.
To be fair to Musk, who, right now, might have been on Mars rather than at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s home, had his predictions on inter-planetary space travel been accurate (last year he changed the 2024-26 timeline to 2028), often delivers (Hyperloop excluded), just not in the timeframes he predicts.
And while he’s prepared to cut himself some slack, woe betide others trying to read the chicken entrails.
Nine newspapers technology editor David Swan turned Summer seer over the break, penning a 2025 predictions column saying Musk will resign as Tesla boss.
“To be juggling leadership roles at X (formerly Twitter), Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, the Boring Company and Neuralink was already unsustainable. Musk now has wormed his way into Trump’s inner circle, and will jointly lead the president-elect’s DOGE – Department of Government Efficiency – in a bid to slash billions in government expenditure,” NostraSwan wrote for the SMH, alongside predicting the demise of VR and Bitcoin doubling in price to $200k.
“Musk has already found himself at loggerheads with MAGA diehards like Steve Bannon over immigration issues, and the inauguration is still weeks away. He’s also been at loggerheads with the justice system, after a US judge blocked Musk’s $US56 billion ($90 billion) pay package from Tesla.
“After constant controversies and distractions, it will all come to a head in 2025, and Musk will be forced to hand over the reins at Tesla, a company many mistakenly think he founded.”
It seems even Musk’s outrageous fortune cannot ease his ego’s suffering from the slings and arrows of the smallest slight. So the budding bureaucrat turned to his own town square, which is losing millions of users, using the Donald Trump playbook to bag the media.
The free speech absolutionist* (*absolution is granted only if your view aligns with Musk’s, otherwise you’re cancelled), who this week fell out with former UK buddy Nigel Farage, retorted on the former Twitter that “I predict that the Sydney Morning Herald will continue to lose readership in 2025 for relentlessly lying to their audience and boring them to death”.
Of course the Muskolytes fell into line behind their hero. Swan took it on the chin, responding “Damn, roasted”.
The story that upset the world’s richest man
Tesla sales tank
But Musk probably should be focused on declining Tesla sales, rather than the augury of an Antipodean journalist.
The EV maker’s Australian deliveries (and likely sales) tanked 17% in 2024, their first calendar year fall, despite price cuts of up to $9500.
The Electric Vehicle Council reported 2024 deliveries of 38,347 new Teslas, down from 46,120 in 2023.
Musk’s brand remains the market leader, accounting for 42% of Australian EV sales, but there’s a big shift underway, with the growth in other EV brands up 29% last year. Overall, annual sales grew by 4.7%, but were dragged down by Tesla’s decline.
Globally, a decade of growth ended for the carmaker, with the number of Teslas delivered falling for the first time, to 1.79 million, down from 1.81m in 2023.
And the jury remains out on the Cybertruck, with sales appearing to be a long way from the 1 million reservations Musk claimed.
Perhaps everyone’s still waiting for the 1000km range Musk promised in 2015 a Tesla would have “for sure” by 2017. Or maybe the 1,2ookm range he predicted by 2020.
While SMH saw its readership decline slightly in 2024, it remains streaks ahead of the competition with more than 7 million readers, so despite Nine’s share price, it will still be around long after Musk has fallen out with Trump, as many predict.
However if we apply a prediction leeway similar to the the one granted to the current Telsa CEO, then Swan’s prognostication on Musk only has to come true some time before 2035 to be as accurate as many of the statements made by a billionaire who said, last March: “Just to be super clear, I am not donating money to either candidate for US President” before contradicting himself within months to back Donald Trump to the tune of US$242.6 million.
Sometimes it’s hard to know what you’re going to do next week, let alone by the end of the year, but with 2025 freshly underway, at least we can agree we’re optimistic about the future.
As John Lennon observed nearly 60 years ago, tomorrow never knows.